Wall St. Loves to Guess, but Nobody Knows What the Market Will Do in 2024
So-called stock forecasts don’t deserve the name, our columnist says. Wall Street’s track record is horrendous.
who writes Strategies, a weekly New York Times column on markets, finance and the economy.
"Wall Street strategists are issuing forecasts for the performance of the stock market in 2024.
Pay them no mind.
The predictions are usually wrong, and when they’re right it’s only by accident."
These forecasts get a tremendous amount of media coverage but aren't worth the paper/pixels they are written on.
Sommer advises: "If you find them entertaining or otherwise illuminating — wonderful. Enjoy them."
"But at all costs, don’t take them at face value because there is no evidence that anyone can predict the market’s movements reliably, and a great deal of evidence that buying and selling stock on the basis of your views about the market’s impending movements is a fool’s game."
It is amazing how much money these investment analysts and gurus are paid to speculate about the future.
In 2019 who would have predicted Covid 19 and the way it affected economies throughout the world for the next three years?
In 2022, not even the best Pentagon and CIA analysts predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine and disrupt grain markets and raise food prices throughout the world in addition to many other economic impacts.
Israel, with the best spies, analysts and undercover agents around the world, was taken by surprise by the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
Even setting aside these earth shaking events, it is literally impossible to predict the direction of investment markets. Reams of academic research papers have explored this topic and all agree that no one can reliably predict short term investment markets.
You can't control markets so stick to what you can control: your asset allocation and how much you pay for investing. Choose ultra low cost index mutual funds for your long term goals.
I just finished reading your post on investment estimates and couldn't agree with you more. You must have read my mind! Your down-to-earth attitude struck a chord with me. We've all been inundated with flashy forecasts, so it's nice to hear someone say, "Hold up, let's take a reality check."
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