A surprising share of a new bull market’s returns pile up in its very early stages, when the average investor is at their most fearful
"Investor psychology in a major bear market is a mirror image of what it
was the past few years: The more false alarms there were on the way up,
the likelier investors were to embrace risk, viewing dips as buying
opportunities. On the way down, so-called suckers’ rallies... get our hopes up and then crush them."
"A surprising share of a new bull market’s returns pile up in its very
early stages when people are most fearful. Take the one that ended last
month. Putting $100,000 into an S&P 500 index fund on the day the bull began
on March 9, 2009 and selling at last month’s peak would have seen that
turn into $630,000 including dividends. Waiting just three months to
make sure it wasn’t yet another head fake would have earned you only
$450,000."
"If you wait for happy headlines or hopeful government statistics for a
clue for when to pounce, you’ll be too late. Stocks typically rally
before a recession is over."
"Making lemonade out of the market’s lemons sounds tempting, but it isn’t
easy. The old saw goes that the stock market is the only one where
people run away when there’s a sale. Beforehand they crowd in when the
wares are most expensive because they see everyone else getting rich.
For example, in the 10 months leading up to the last market peak in
October 2007, a net $84 billion flowed into equity mutual funds
according to the Investment Company Institute. By contrast, a net $233
billion flowed out from June 2008 through March 2009, the heart of the
bear market when stocks became screaming bargains."
"If the last month truly convinced you that you had too much money in
stocks to sleep well at night then take your lumps and dial back your
risk permanently. But if you’re merely waiting for a sign that it’s safe
to buy again then just hold your nose, increase your allocation to
equities, and learn to love bear markets."
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