April 20, 2018

New data on Health Care Costs in Retirement, including long term care expenses

There have been plenty of reports detailing exceedingly high health care costs for retirees, with some estimates far exceeding the average retiree's nest egg. Specifically: a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2018 can expect to pay an estimated $280,000 in health care costs in retirement, according to Fidelity investments. (https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2018/04/19/heres-how-much-2018-retirees-will-pay-for-health-c/

Medicare does not cover long term care costs for nursing homes or assisted living. While some retirees choose to buy long term care insurance, the LTCI industry is in a state of considerable flux, with companies leaving the marketplace and remaining insurers raising premiums quite dramatically.
The latest report from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI.org) sheds light on this vexing question. Although no one can know if they will be among those with few expenses or the unfortunate person who will spend multiple years in a costly nursing home, the summary of the report is worth reading.
A key paragraph from the Plan Advisor summary: 
"Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) finds out-of-pocket health care expenses are typically miscalculated, as the median cumulative for long-lived elderly people (those who pass away at 95-years-old or older) rounded out at $27,000. Yet, this doesn’t signify low health care costs, either. Ten percent of this group reported spending $172,000 in health care expenses, and 5% said they paid $269,000 in out-of-pocket medical costs. Services included hospital stays, nursing home stays, outpatient surgery, doctor’s visits, prescriptions drugs, dental services, home health care and hospice care, according to EBRI. Additionally, all participants surveyed were at least 70 years of age." See: https://www.planadviser.com/determining-health-cost-needs-retirement-complex/
The Plan Advisor website provides a link to a PDF of the report. 
The range of expenses is wide with persons requiring nursing home care facing the highest costs. It is important to understand what Medicare and Medicaid cover and what they don't. This report is a helpful reality check.
In sum, some expert reports suggest astronomical health care costs for retirees while others say "wait a minute, not so fast." What to do? A lot depends on your personal situation (health, family, financial, risk tolerance); but data are available to make an educated decision on what to do.
Fill out a state-specific health care directive and talk with your family and health care advocate about your end-of-life wishes. Much of the high costs come in the last year of life and are based on the decision to prolong life at all costs vs. getting palliative care. It's your choice. be sure to make your wishes known to your family, health care providers and put your wishes in writing. 

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